There are signs that Bitcoin may be heading for another peak cycle as the inflow of whale investments to exchanges is declining. Historically, Bitcoin tends to reach its highest values when these inflows decrease, and this trend could potentially repeat in 2025.
Data from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin's price peaks are often associated with reduced whale trading activity. A crypto analyst, Grizzly, pointed out that the Whale Exchange Ratio, which measures the proportion of the top ten whale inflows to total inflows, reached 0.46 on February 12, close to its highest level in several years. This is notable compared to a ratio of 0.36 in mid-December, when Bitcoin approached its all-time high.
Although Bitcoin's price has dropped recently and whale trading has increased, there are signs of a decrease in whale activity. Grizzly mentioned that even though the Whale Exchange Ratio has risen significantly since late 2024, its growth has slowed in the past two weeks without any clear reversal trend.
Historically, a drop in whale inflows often signals a bullish trend for Bitcoin. Whales play a crucial role in Bitcoin's price dynamics, with major investors holding their coins for less than six months, maintaining an average cost basis below $90,000 over the past three months.
Additionally, miners have started to accumulate Bitcoin again after a six-month period of outflows, suggesting a potential market bottom. Recent observations indicate that the influence of miner sales has decreased significantly compared to the inflows from institutional investors.
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